Age Pyramid

Age Pyramid

Age Pyramid Overview

The age pyramid graphic is used for reviewing the demographic structure within a geographic region. It normally used for demographic labour resource analysis.

Insight analysis and Assumptions

In the second half of last century, China’s population grew steadily and rapidly. Thanks to this the country has enjoyed the demographic dividend for almost half a century since the 1980s economic reforms. China experienced two birth peaks since the country was founded:

  1. 1962-1969 (the 1960s): Post the Great Chinese Famine (three years of great famine)
  2. 1980-1989 (the 1980s): Post economic reform baby boom

These two baby booms are expected to provide relatively sufficient labour supply for China over the 50-year-period, beginning from 1990s and lasting to 2030s-2040s. When the first baby boom generation (1960s) gradually leaves the labour market (the current retirement age in China is 50-55 for female and 55-60 for males), from 2025 onwards, Chinese society will experience an aging problem. In 2040s, China will enter the era of aging population, with more than a quarter of the population over 65.

China’s population changes are mainly driven by the government’s demographic policies. The vital factor is the family planning campaign which has been responsible for birth control since the 1970s. Meanwhile, birth willingness gap between urban and rural is closing by universal education, the Hukou (household registry) system, as long as losing control of migration. Rural birth rates are reducing as well as urban area, eventually result in the risk of aging population that China is facing. (See related topics: Fertility rate(link), Education distribution(link), Migration(link) )

China’s family planning campaign (birth control policy):

1970-1978: Two-child policy (restricted to 2-children per couple)

1979-2010: The one-child policy (restricted to 1 child per couple)

2011-2015:  Second child if each parent was from a one-child family

2015-2020: General two-child policy

2021: Three-child policy

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Demographic data

The Dataist data service provides demographic data for China 31 provinces and 300 prefecture level cities. Data include population level and growth rates by gender, age-groups and urban/rural split. Data range covers period from year 2000 up to 2050.

Source and methodology

The Dataist demographic data for China are based on the China demographic surveys by the National Bureau of Statistics, the 5th survey in 2000, 6th survey in 2010 and 7th survey in 2020, and generated by the Dataist demographic forecast model. The model tracks the demographic natural growth (deaths and births), as well as migration trends, in order to forecast the population changes in the near future and longer-term period.

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